Tesla Inc shares were subdued on Friday as investors weighed a mix of near-term concerns and longer-term optimism, with a delivery miss, weakening options support, and diverging analyst views shaping sentiment ahead of earnings later this month.
The stock was down slightly at $345.29 at the time of writing, weighed by lingering pressure from a softer-than-expected first-quarter performance.
Tesla reported deliveries of 358,023 vehicles, below the consensus estimate of 365,645, while production also missed expectations at 408,386 units versus a forecast of 446,063.
The muted reaction highlights a market caught between concerns over slowing demand and confidence in Tesla’s long-term positioning in artificial intelligence and autonomous driving.
Delivery miss and energy shortfall raise near-term concerns
Tesla’s first-quarter update has kept scrutiny firmly on its core automotive business.
The shortfall in both deliveries and production has raised questions about demand momentum, particularly as the company heads into its April 22 earnings report.
In addition to vehicle metrics, energy storage deployments came in at 8.8 GWh, well below expectations of 14.4 GWh.
The weaker-than-expected performance has reinforced investor focus on both automotive and energy margins in the near term.
Analysts remain divided. JPMorgan’s Ryan Brinkman reiterated a “high degree of caution,” pointing to ongoing risks in Tesla’s core operations.
At the same time, Morgan Stanley maintained a $415 price target, framing it as nearly 15% upside from current levels, underscoring the continued appeal of Tesla’s long-term growth narrative.
Wall Street’s broader consensus remains constructive, with a Buy rating and an average price target of $417.82.
Options activity fades, removing a key support
Beyond fundamentals, trading dynamics are also playing a role in Tesla’s recent performance.
GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson highlighted a notable shift in options activity, which has historically supported the stock.
Johnson noted that aggressive call option buying by retail traders has helped drive Tesla shares higher in the past, creating a feedback loop through hedging activity by brokers.
“To hedge a call option, a broker can buy the underlying stock. That way, if the stock rises, the broker makes some money on the stock to offset losses on selling the options contract.”
However, he found that this support appears to be weakening in 2026, potentially removing a key tailwind for the stock. Without the same level of call buying, the so-called “gamma squeeze” dynamic that has boosted Tesla shares in previous rallies may be less impactful.
Johnson, who maintains a Sell rating and a $25.28 price target, argued that this shift could contribute to further downside, especially as the stock has already declined 23% this year and is approaching an eight-week losing streak.
Earnings, valuation and AI narrative in focus
Looking ahead, Tesla’s April 22 earnings report is expected to be a major catalyst.
Wall Street estimates earnings per share of 33 cents and revenue of [MONEY value=”22650000000″ currency=”usd” notation=”long” replace=”false”], both higher than a year ago.
Valuation remains a central debate. Tesla trades at a steep multiple, with a price-to-earnings ratio of around 320x based on near-term estimates and about 170 times projected 2026 earnings, reflecting investor expectations for AI-driven growth.
The company’s push into artificial intelligence, including its robo-taxi service and humanoid robot development, continues to underpin the bullish case.
At the same time, some investors are watching whether capital could shift toward Elon Musk’s other ventures, such as a potential SpaceX listing.
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